Draw probability tool

Poker Outs and Equity Helper

Count your outs, pick one card or two to come, and see how often you'll hit your draw in Hold'em.

How to use it

Count the cards that turn your hand into a likely winner. Type that number in, from 1 to 20. Then choose one card to come (you're on the flop and only care about the turn, or you're on the turn) or two cards (you're on the flop and will see both the turn and river).

Worked example: you hold 8♠7♠ on a K♠4♠2♦ flop. Thirteen spades are in the deck, you can see four, so 9 are left. That's 9 outs. With two cards to come the helper shows about 35.0%. The rule of 4 says 36%, close enough. With one card to come it's 9 ÷ 47, about 19.1%, against 18% from the rule of 2.

A few more common draws, flop to river:

  • Open-ended straight draw, like J♣T♦ on 9♠8♥2♣: 8 outs, about 31.5%.
  • Gutshot, like J♣T♦ on Q♠8♥2♣: 4 outs, about 16.5%.
  • Flush draw plus open-ender, like J♠T♠ on 9♠8♠2♦: 15 outs, about 54.1%. The rule of 4 says 60% here, which shows how the shortcut runs high with big draws.

What counts as a clean out?

An out should give you a hand that's likely to win, not just a better hand. If the card that completes your draw also helps your opponent, it's dirty. Holding 8♠7♠ on K♠K♦4♠, the 4♠ makes your flush but also fills up anyone with a king-four or a pocket four. Don't count cards like that at full value. Discount an out or two when the board is paired or your draw isn't to the nuts.

How the math works

For one card from the flop, the helper uses outs ÷ 47, since you've seen your two cards and the three on the flop. For two cards, it works out the chance of missing on both the turn and the river and subtracts that from 100%. It doesn't know your opponent's hand, redraws or which cards are already folded, so treat the result as the most your draw can be worth.

The rule of 2 and 4 (multiply your outs by 2 for one card, by 4 for two) is the version you'll use live. Once you know your equity, check it against the price with the pot odds calculator. One catch: the two-card number only counts if you'll actually see both cards. Facing a flop bet with more betting to come, the one-card number is often the honest one.

Outs FAQ

How many outs does a flush draw have?

Nine. There are 13 cards in a suit, and you can see four of them in your hand and on the board. That's about 35% to hit by the river from the flop, or about 19% with one card to come.

What is the rule of 2 and 4 in poker?

Multiply your outs by 4 on the flop to estimate your chance of hitting by the river, or by 2 for one card. It's close for normal draws and runs high once you have more than about 8 outs.

Why is my real equity lower than the helper says?

The helper assumes every out wins. In a real hand some outs are dirty, your opponent may already have you drawing thin, and you may not see both cards if you face another bet.